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crise financiere mondiale - Les pays d'Afrique du Nord relativement épargnés


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L’analyse de la Coface sur les effets de la crise financière mondiale

Les pays d'Afrique du Nord relativement épargnés

 

“Parmi les principaux partenaires commerciaux des entreprises françaises, les pays d’Afrique du Nord semblent relativement épargnés par la crise”.

 

C’est du moins ce que relève la Coface dans un communiqué publié le 8 avril dernier. Le document souligne que la Tunisie et le Maroc possèdent une économie diversifiée et un système bancaire peu exposé aux actifs toxiques.

 

Les pays pétroliers d’Afrique du Nord et le Moyen-Orient ont, eux, abordé la crise avec une situation financière renforcée (provenant du boom pétrolier des années 2003-2008), dont toute la région a bénéficié. La zone ne subit aucun changement de note. Coface ne constate pas à ce stade de détérioration du comportement de paiement des entreprises. “Nous devrions atteindre le pic de la crise au premier semestre 2009”, déclare François David, président de Coface. “Notre scénario principal privilégie toujours la fin de la crise de crédit dans la seconde moitié de l’année 2009, au moment où l’économie mondiale devrait arrêter de se contracter. Nous envisageons une reprise début 2010, mais molle en raison du très long processus de désendettement des agents privés : entreprises et ménages”. La Coface relève que la solidité des entreprises continue de se dégrader dans la plupart des pays. La Coface souligne que la crise de crédit, entrée dans sa deuxième phase au 4e trimestre 2008, s’aggrave dans toutes les zones. Après avoir constaté une dégradation de la solidité moyenne des entreprises de 22 pays en janvier, Coface procède à de nouvelles mises sous surveillance négative ou déclassements qui concernent 47 pays.

 

La plupart des pays voient leur note baisser d’un rang (sur une échelle de 13), deux pour les pays les plus touchés (Espagne, Royaume-Uni et Irlande notamment). Quelques zones se maintiennent à leur niveau de risque précédent : l’Inde, le Brésil, la Chine et le Moyen-Orient ainsi que l’Afrique du Nord.

Les Bric’s : touchés mais pas coulés

Parmi les pays qui résistent relativement se trouvent 3 des Bric’s : l’Inde, le Brésil et la Chine. La note A3 de l’Inde demeure inchangée depuis décembre 2004. En effet, le pays reste porté par sa demande interne et est peu touché par la crise via le canal du commerce international. Les entreprises indiennes font face au ralentissement le plus modéré des Bric’s (5% de croissance en 2009 soit 4 points de moins par rapport à 2007). Le Brésil (note A4 depuis décembre 2006) possède une économie diversifiée. En outre, l’endettement en devises des entreprises n’a pas été aussi explosif qu’en Europe centrale. Coface conserve la surveillance négative annoncée en janvier dernier sur la note A3 de la Chine, en raison de la vulnérabilité des entreprises au choc de croissance dans un contexte de surcapacités, de très forte concurrence et donc de compression des marges.

 

Cependant, la mobilisation des politiques économiques de relance et les signaux positifs du premier trimestre (augmentation du crédit, hausse de la production manufacturière) conduisent Coface à ne pas déclasser ce pays. La Russie, en revanche, est le pays le plus touché des quatre. Elle va devoir faire face à un choc de croissance de 11 points, soit le plus élevé des grands pays (de 8,1% en 2007 à -3% en 2009). Les entreprises russes sont très fortement endettées en devises et donc très affectées par le crédit crunch. Coface continue à enregistrer des impayés début 2009 et dans ce contexte, la note de la Russie est dégradée en C.

 

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